Saturday, October 05, 2002

The Future Isn't What It Used To Be

Long ago and far away, but stunning in retrospect to consider what might have been.

I can recall a sales guy in 1976 saying "I can sell a mini for $25K or a micro for $2.5K. How many of these things do you think we can sell? With 30,000 machines in the field, we already have the second largest installed base in the world."

Intel has since shown us that:

  • More than 30,000 CPUs can be sold, before breakfast, even.
  • Architecture is not a strong predictor of success
  • What almost all computer companies do efficiently is packaging, not fundamental design

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